Yes, NASA says, an asteroid that passes by Earth in 2032 could hit it.
But, and this is very important, the chances are still “extremely low,” even though they’ve gone up since the object was first seen.
Earth could be hit by an asteroid up to 300 feet wide in 2032NASA predicts a 2.3% chance of 2024 YR4, an asteroid, hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, despite the extremely low chances since its discovery a few weeks ago.Even though it’s still very small, that chance almost doubled from the agency’s first guess in late January, when it was only 1.2%.
NASA said at the time that “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”
The agency is keeping an eye on the asteroid’s path and said that the “impact hazard” of the object might be ruled out in the long run. They did say in a blog post about the space rock that it is “also possible its impact probability will continue to rise” as more information comes in.
The asteroid is thought to be between 130 and 300 feet across by NASA. The Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory says that if the asteroid did hit Earth, it would probably do so “at a high velocity” of about 38,000 mph.
It’s likely that a space rock that big would damage some areas but not the whole world or people, like what might happen if a much bigger asteroid were headed straight for Earth.
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile was the first to notice the asteroid 2024 YR4. It did so on December 27, 2024. Since then, scientists have been using cameras on Earth to study the space rock.
NASA said that ground-based telescopes will still be able to see the asteroid until April. After that, the space rock will be too weak to see until around June 2028.
NASA says that in March, the James Webb Space Telescope will look at the asteroid to get a better idea of how big it is.
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